NFL Week 3 Projections, 9.20.24
Two weeks down, sixteen to go…
Due to travel issues and work I was unable to update my numbers prior to Thursday night’s game, but I don’t feel too badly about that. The Jets thumped the Patriots, leading many to proclaim that Aaron Rodgers is back and New York is displaying why they were a trendy pick entering the 2024 season. Perhaps that’s the case. Or perhaps they couldn’t help but look like world beaters against a New England team that would struggle to block an elite pass rush from the collegiate ranks. Regardless, as stated last week, tread lightly with what does or doesn’t happen on Thursday nights.
A few broad observations before the projections:
I know it’s been two weeks…but the numbers make it difficult not to be impressed with what New Orleans is doing right now. Maybe some of the statistics are inflated due to circumstances, but these numbers are downright staggering. This isn’t to say that New Orleans is a lock to wind up playing for a championship…but earlier this week the Saints were 35/1 to win the Super Bowl and 15/1 to win the NFC - both numbers I’ve invested in.
The rookie quarterbacks continue to struggle, but I still don’t fully understand what the naysayers expected, specifically when talking about Caleb Williams. He hasn’t set the world on fire these first two weeks, but he’s dealing with a banged up group of skill players and an offensive line that currently rivals that of the aforementioned New England Patriots (not great, Bob). These guys (Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix) may all end up being busts, but it’s far too early to jump to conclusions.
The statistics surrounding the 0-2 teams making the playoffs are damning (11.5% since 1990), meaning it’s getting late early for the Bengals, Ravens, Colts, Titans, Jaguars, Broncos, Giants, Panthers, and Rams. Of that grouping, only a select few had any real expectations leading into the season. If any of these teams drops to 0-3? You can nearly write them off. According to an article on SI.com, teams that begin the season 0-3 (from a sample of 162) have made the postseason 2.5% of the time dating back to 1990. All of this is to say…show up this week or your season might be over before the calendar turns to October.
As long as time permits going forward, I’ll leave my projection for a game and a quick thought, for better or for worse.
DENVER 18.5 - TAMPA BAY 26.6…TB -8.1
New Orleans may be getting all the love, but Tampa isn’t far behind the Saints as far as I’m concerned. Denver doesn’t do much well on either side of the ball, but specifically on offense. Tampa has some injury concerns, but they should handle business at home. TB / Over both could play, but I’m not very interested in playing this one.
NEW YORK GIANTS 14.8 - CLEVELAND 25.2…CLE -10.4
It’s difficult for me to see why the Giants would go into Cleveland and have more success against a good Browns defense than they did against a Commanders defense last week that is horrid. North of 24 points may be aggressive for Cleveland because they don’t look particularly strong…I’m just that low on New York. 6.5 is a big number to lay when Deshaun Watson is your quarterback, but it may be warranted in this spot. If I play here I’m more inclined to look at a Giants team total under.
LA CHARGERS 19.0 - PITTSBURGH 20.3…PIT -1.3
Under no circumstances could I back Pittsburgh laying this number. Both of these defenses are elite but I have a pretty healthy gap offensively between LAC and PIT (in favor of the Chargers) - however that’s assuming Justin Herbert plays. If Herbert were to suit up I’d be very interested in LAC +3, but given his status I’m likely to pass. My total may be overzealous even if Herbert plays; if he’s a scratch, I could be far too high.
PHILADELPHIA 23.3 - NEW ORLEANS 27.0…NO -3.7
I do like New Orleans in this spot, however the opportunity to buy has come and gone. I’ll sit back with my futures tickets and hope the results continue for the Saints at home.
HOUSTON 24.6 - MINNESOTA 24.1…HOU -0.5
I don’t know that I love Minnesota long term, but I can say pretty confidently that they’ve been the better of these two teams through two games. Houston is fortunate to be 2-0 given the lackluster performances to start the season, and I believe this Vikings defense is every bit as good as the Bears unit that gave them fits last week, if not better. Sam Darnold just needs to keep the train on the tracks and not try to overdo it; I like taking the 1.5 at home with Minnesota.
GREEN BAY - TENNESSEE
There is too much uncertainty here for me to even guess. If Jordan Love plays he’s almost certainly not 100%, but he’s also considerably better than a fully healthy Malik Willis. I have no interest in trying to put a number together here.
CHICAGO 21.8 - INDIANAPOLIS 22.9…IND -1.1
This is an annoying game. Chicago can’t block anyone and Indianapolis’ defense is among the worst in the league…do they cancel each other out? If it comes down to which of the young quarterbacks plays better, I think I’m more inclined to bet on Caleb Williams than Anthony Richardson. Richardson has a sick arm and is built like a tank, but he has precisely zero touch. It’s either cannonballs or garbage throws - plus his decision making stinks. I’ll pass on this game.
CAROLINA 14.6 - LAS VEGAS 21.5…LV -6.9
As someone who backed the Panthers to be the lowest scoring team in the NFL at 8/1 prior to the season, the benching of Bryce Young came as a disappointment. The offense was completely and utterly inept, so one would think the move to Andy Dalton - who is older than me - would represent a slight uptick in production. That being said, I still think this team is a mess. Even with the quarterback change, I can talk myself into playing an under here.
MIAMI 16.6 - SEATTLE 23.1…SEA -6.5
This is another game I have no interest in. Tua to Skylar is meaningful, even as poorly as Tua had played this season. All the moving pieces plus a blehhh performance from the Seahawks in New England last week leave me cold. Pass.
SAN FRANCISCO 25.2 - LA RAMS 19.6…SF -5.6
Another game I have little interest in. San Francisco will be fine after losing to Minnesota on the road during a short week, even with the absence McCaffrey. Los Angeles is a shell of themselves with the injuries to Nucua and Kupp…and even having said that, I still think McVay and Stafford can put up a fight. In terms of gambling, however, it’s an easy pass.
DETROIT 28.9 - ARIZONA 23.6…DET -5.3
Probably the most entertaining game of the weekend. You could tell me the real Lions will show up and blow the doors off the Cardinals on the road; you could tell me Kyler’s resurgence is real and the Cards will continue to light up the scoreboard. I’d believe either scenario when all is said and done. Of the two teams to this point, I’d say I’m a bit more impressed by Arizona given their performance in Buffalo and then the blowout of the MASH unit that is LAR. We’ll see if 2023’s Lions roar on Sunday or continue with the unimpressive start to the season. Pass.
BALTIMORE 25.7 - DALLAS 26.1…DAL -0.4
Probably the most important game of the weekend. I’ve heard some people downplay that idea, but the reality is either one of these teams will be 0-3 after this game (Baltimore) or they’ll each be 1-2…and that’s still not ideal given the expectations for each squad entering the season. It’s damn near a must-win for the Ravens, which sounds idiotic considering it’s only week three. Then again, three games accounts for nearly 18% of the regular season - which doesn’t make that prior statement sound idiotic at all. It’s put up or shut up time. I may give a slight lean to the Cowboys at home? No real push here.
KANSAS CITY 25.7 - ATLANTA 23.5…KC -2.2
Kansas City has played two tough customers (at least on paper) to begin the season in Baltimore and Cincinnati, but each of those games were at home and their defense didn’t play particularly well against either opponent. Atlanta still seems a bit underwhelming when compared to the preseason hype, but maybe that win on Monday night was the sort of table setter they needed to get things going in the right direction. Pacheco being gone absolutely hurts the Chiefs’ offense, but even with that taken into consideration, my lean here would be an over for the game. I’d like to think both teams will be able to score on Sunday night.
JACKSONVILLE 20.7 - BUFFALO 25.4…BUF -4.7
This is a game where my head tells me one thing and my eyes tell me another. Watching these two teams the first two weeks of the season, my eyes tell me Buffalo can absolutely beat the Jags by a touchdown at home. But then the data rolls in and suggests it may not be so cut and dry. I’m inclined to think Buffalo can handle business? But the fact this came back as close as it did gives me second thoughts. I’ll pass.
WASHINGTON 18.0 - CINCINNATI 27.4…CIN -9.4
If Cincinnati can’t blow the doors off this Washington defense then they’re in serious trouble. Not only are they looking to avoid going 0-3, but they’re taking on a Commanders’ secondary that’s straight-up bad. This has all the makings of a get-right spot for the Bengals at home. If Burrow and the Bengals can’t torch Washington with their season on the line? Say goodnight, Irene - it’s over. I like Cincinnati -7.