NFL Week 4 Projections, 9.28.24
Three weeks down, fifteen to go...
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 27.2 – GREEN BAY PACKERS 24.5
- It sounds as though Jordan Love will return for the Packers, which obviously offers them a boost over Malik Willis. With that being said, I’m still not convinced that Minnesota isn’t simply a better team than Green Bay at this point. I’m WAY over market on the total, which typically makes me wary. The idea of catching a field goal on a team that I think is among the best in the NFL is appealing.
DENVER BRONCOS 18.1 – NEW YORK JETS 26.4
- I’m more or less on market in this game, and I don’t have any real interest in gambling on this event.
CINCINNATI BENGALS 23.6 – CAROLINA PANTHERS 17.3
- Cincinnati can’t get out of its own way, but perhaps a trip to Charlotte will right the ship and see them get their first win of the season. I don’t anticipate making a play on this game, but I’m well below market on the total. Logically that doesn’t seem like a great idea given the porous nature of these two defenses…but that’s what my numbers suggest. I’ll still probably sit this one out.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 24.3 – INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 19.5
- I still have difficulty grasping the Steelers being undefeated and leading the AFC North, but if this is what the league is going to be this year – terrible offense and solid defense – then Pittsburgh is going to be a force to be reckoned with. Indianapolis has been a disappointment to this point – specifically Anthony Richardson. Pass.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 13.9 – HOUSTON TEXANS 22.7
- Jacksonville is a hot mess right now, but with the way Houston has played in 2024, I’m not sure I’m in a rush to back them laying nearly a touchdown. It would be disappointing if the Texans didn’t take care of business in this spot – but that doesn’t mean I’m looking forward to betting on them here.
LOS ANGELES RAMS 17.4 – CHICAGO BEARS 18.9
- Another game I have no interest in whatsoever. The Rams are a MASH unit, and Chicago can’t block for Caleb Williams (although I maintain he’s still going to be OK long term).
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 27.0 – ATLANTA FALCONS 23.5
- Another instance where I’m off-market by a healthy margin. Speaking of health, that’s what this game boils down to. Both teams are dealing with key injuries (specifically the offensive line), so perhaps this is a more difficult number to hammer down than it seems. At face value? I think New Orleans is simply a better team. I’ll take the points.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 23.6 – TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 23.4
- If I had to make a play here it would be over 42, but that doesn’t seem like something I want to get involved in. Tampa was terrible last week against Denver and Philly did everything they could to lose in New Orleans last week…so maybe you get the best version of them Sunday? No play here.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 14.7 – SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 24.9
- While I’m on-market here…I do think there’s slight appeal with New England catching double-digit points on the road. If they’re going to cover against a team like San Francisco, it would be in a game like this. San Francisco is all sorts of banged up and New England will hope to play keep away. No play but taking the points with the Pats is mildly intriguing.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 17.8 – ARIZONA CARDINALS 28.1
- I may be way off here, but I think people are going overboard with the Jayden Daniels praise and the love for Washington. They still have a disastrous defense and Kyler Murray is playing as well as he has in a few years. This would be one of my stronger pushes for the afternoon, laying the points at home with the Cards.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
- With the lingering Herbert situation this game becomes a pass for me, although I would have been very interested in Los Angeles outright with a healthy QB under center.
CLEVELAND BROWNS 16.1 – LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 14.7
- Truly a battle of the dregs at this point. There’s no part of me interested in this game, whether we’re talking about betting or viewing.
BUFFALO BILLS 28.1 – BALTIMORE RAVENS 22.8
- I understand Baltimore deserves respect playing at home on Sunday night…but couldn’t an argument be made that Buffalo catching points against anyone is disrespectful? I have a healthy difference here and I plan to act accordingly. I’ll likely play this game for 2x, taking the points on offer for Buffalo.
TENNESSEE TITANS – MIAMI DOLPHINS
- Another instance where the lack of health for one of the teams makes this game unappealing to me. Miami is a hot mess, but perhaps they can get right against Tennessee on Monday night.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 24.8 – DETROIT LIONS 26.1
- I’m interested to see how this game unfolds. I don’t intend on playing anything here, primarily because it’s hard for me to convince myself that the spread should be less than 3.5.